doublebonusdeuceswildstrategy| Ethylene glycol futures reduced holdings on rallies: supply is lower than expected, demand is weakening, and the risk of cost reduction in staple fiber inventories increases

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Newsletter summary

Ethylene glycol futures are recommended to reduce their holdings due to lower-than-expected supply and weaker marginal demand. Short-term short-term staple fiber futures, there is a cost downside risk. Bitumen and fuel futures are recommended to hit high because of increased supply and slowing demand growth. Low sulphur fuel futures are also recommended for high altitude. Styrene oscillates in a narrow range, which is affected by multi-empty stalemate. PX futures demand marginal improvement, it is recommended to do long bargain. The fundamental pressure of PTA futures accumulates slowly and is more cautious.

Text of news flash

[ethylene glycol futures market suggests that the supply of ethylene glycol is lower than expected recently. Affected by factors such as Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Petrochemical Company and Fuling Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., the average operating rate has fallen by 2 percentage points to 58% since the beginning of May compared with April.Doublebonusdeuceswildstrategy.7%. The demand side also showed weakness, with polyester operating rate falling by more than 4 percentage points since mid-May to about 89%, affected by reduced filament production. In addition, the supply of goods in circulation in the market increased at the end of the month, which may weaken the momentum of the rebound in the price of ethylene glycol. However, investors need to be wary of the risk that supply recovery is less than expected.

[staple fiber futures show short-term bullish trend] the situation of staple fiber inventory shows that the factory staple fiber inventory shows a downward trend, with a decline of 2.9 days. This change is mainly due to the increase in the inventory of staple fiber factories and the decrease of raw material inventory in yarn mills. The reason is due to the increase in production and the slowdown in production and marketing activities. At the same time, the total inventory of pure polyester yarn factory decreased significantly, and the operating rate of yarn mill remained stable due to the rapid decline of raw material inventory. Still, investors need to guard against the risks of falling costs.

[asphalt market operation suggests shorting high] Asphalt demand is suppressed by high prices, while the supply side is gradually increasing. Investors are advised to consider selling when prices are high. It should be noted that if the price of crude oil rises sharply, it may have an impact on the asphalt market.

[fuel prices suggest shorting on high] fuel supply is gradually recovering, while demand growth is slowing, and investors can consider shorting when prices go higher. Similar to the asphalt market, the sharp rise in crude oil prices may be a potential market risk factor.

[low-sulfur fuel market operation advice is also to short every high] low-sulfur fuel market supply increases, demand growth slows, and it is strategically recommended to consider selling when prices are high. Attention should be paid to the market risks that may be brought about by a sharp rise in crude oil prices.

[styrene market shock pattern limits upper and lower elasticity] the current styrene fundamentals are sound, there is a strong support below. The downstream S industry has benefited from the decline in raw materials, profits have been repaired, and the operating rate has increased recently. At the same time, stocks of pure benzene and styrene are low compared with the same period last year, and destocking is under way. However, due to factors such as the seasonal weakening of demand and the increase in pure benzene imports, the upward momentum is limited in the short term, and the market is expected to fluctuate between 9300 and 9500 in the short term. In terms of risk, we need to pay attention to oil price fluctuations, macro policy changes and device dynamics.

[PX Market recommends long bargain] from April to May, PX entered the de-destocking phase, and the return of high supply was delayed due to the sudden stop of unplanned devices. With the return of PTA stop reduction devices and the increase of new production units, the supply and demand of PX is expected to continue to improve. In addition, the demand for gasoline during the peak season has yet to be verified. On the whole, there is room for further improvement in supply and demand. After the price reaches the lower edge of the range, investors should consider the low-multi strategy. Risks to be aware of include a sharp fall in crude oil and a higher-than-expected supply.

doublebonusdeuceswildstrategy| Ethylene glycol futures reduced holdings on rallies: supply is lower than expected, demand is weakening, and the risk of cost reduction in staple fiber inventories increases

[PTA market is cautiously bullish] on the cost side, there is strong support at the bottom of PX prices. Negative release of polyester end more than expectedDoublebonusdeuceswildstrategyFurther negative, polyester inventory pressure is expected to be adjusted, in the context of a large base of PTA demand is still considerable. However, the sharp fall in crude oil and lower-than-expected demand are still risk factors to pay attention to.

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